Gold Price Chart Hints at Topping Before Key Fed Policy Meeting

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

黄金和原油谈话要点：

• Gold price chart setup hints a top may be forming near $1350/oz

  黄金价格图表设置暗示顶部可能形成接近1350美元/盎司

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• Crude oil prices may not find lasting support in EIA drilling data

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• Commodities bracing for heavy-duty event risk in the days ahead

  商品在未来几天为重型事件风险做好准备

Gold prices probed higher to touch a 14-month high on Friday but the move unraveled – with the metal erasing all of its intraday advance to end the session fractionally lower – as the US Dollar rose alongside Treasury yields in the wake of supportive economic data. The upbeat results also buoyed risk appetite, lifting cycle-sensitive crude oil prices alongside stocks.

黄金价格周五探讨触及14个月以来的高点，但此举被揭开 - 随着金价在盘中一度上涨，以结束会议小幅走低 - 随着美元在支撑性经济数据之后随国债收益率上涨而上涨。乐观的结果也提振了风险偏好，将周期敏感的原油价格与股票一起提升。

COMMODITY PRICES BRACE FOR HEAVY-DUTY EVENT RISK AHEAD

商品价格为重大事件带来风险

Looking ahead, a quiet start to the trading week may be on the menu as traders shy away from strong conviction one way or another ahead of tectonic event risk in the coming days. Wednesdays FOMC meeting takes top billing but commentary from the ECB Forum on the need for further easing may to be potent as well, even as EU heads of state decide who is next to lead the central bank.

展望未来，交易周的平静开始可能在菜单上，因为交易者在未来几天内以某种方式回避构造事件风险之前的强烈信念。周三联邦公开市场委员会会议收费最高，但欧洲央行论坛关于进一步宽松政策需求的评论可能也是有效的，即使欧盟国家元首决定谁将领导中央银行。

The monthly EIA Drilling Productivity Report might offer a bit of a lift to oil prices. Leading rig count data from Baker Hughes suggests the number of active extraction sites in the US has dropped to a 14-month low last week. That seems to speak to a slowdown in output growth which could be seen as price-supportive. Inventories have continued to swell all the same however, so any such notions might be quick to fade.

月度环评钻探生产力报告可能会对油价有所提升。 Baker Hughes领先的钻井平台数据表明，上周美国活跃开采地点的数量已降至14个月以来的最低水平。这似乎与产量增长放缓有关，这可能被视为价格支撑。然而，库存一直在膨胀，所以任何这样的概念都可能很快消失。

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

黄金技术分析

Gold prices put in a dramatic Shooting Star candlestick pattern on a test of resistance marked by Februarys swing highat 1346.75. That coupled with negative RSI divergence suggests upside momentum is fading and hints that a top is forming. A daily close below initial support in the 1323.40-26.30 area exposes the 1303.70-09.12 zone. Alternatively, a move back above 1346.75 eyes the 1357.50-66.06 regionnext.

在Februarys标志的阻力测试中，黄金价格出现了戏剧性的射击之星烛台模式swing highat 1346.75。加上负RSI背离，表明上行势头正在消退，并暗示顶部正在形成。每日收盘价低于initil支撑在1323.40-26.30区域暴露1303.70-09.12区域。或者，在1357.50-66.06区域下方回到1346.75以上。

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

原油技术分析

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Crude oil prices remain range-bound above support in the 50.31-51.33 area. Breaking below it on a daily closing basis opens the door to retest a price floor in play since September 2016 in the 42.05-43.00 zone. Alternatively, a rebound above the upper layer of near-term resistance at 55.75 sets the stage to challenge the 57.24-88 region.

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