Top 5 Events: March Fed Meeting Minutes & EURUSD Price Outlook

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

- The minutes from the March Fed meeting is due on Wednesday, April 10 at 18:00 GMT.

- 3月美联储会议的会议记录将于4月10日星期三格林威治标准时间18:00公布。

- The March Fed meeting saw the FOMC eliminate plans to raises rates in 2019, as well as end its balance sheet reduction process sooner than expected.

- 3月美联储会议看到联邦公开市场委员会取消了2019年提高利率的计划，并且比预期更早地结束资产负债表削减过程。

- Retail traderscontinue to sell EURUSD and GBPUSD despite broad USD-gains.

- 零售尽管美元大幅上涨，交易商继续卖出欧元兑美元和英镑兑美元。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

星期一美国东部时间7:30 /格林威治标准时间11:30 30日参加FX周向网络研讨会，我们在此讨论top未来几天的事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

04/10 WEDNESDAY | 18:00 GMT | USD March FOMC Meeting Minutes

04/10 WEDNESDAY |格林尼治标准时间18:00 |美元3月FOMC会议纪要

The Federal Reserves March meeting hit markets like an earthquake. Between the decision to eliminate the prospect of a 25-bps rate hike in 2019 as well as end the balance sheet reduction process later this year, traders were caught off guard. Citing a weakening economic backdrop in the United States thanks to the US government shutdown, coupled with a challenging global environment weighed down by trade tensions, the Fed took what some may consider a surprisingly dovish stance.

3月份的联邦储备会议就像地震一样袭击市场。在决定消除2019年加息25个基点的前景以及今年晚些时候结束资产负债表减少的过程之间，交易员们措手不及。由于美国政府的关闭以及受贸易紧张局势拖累的全球环境挑战，美国经济背景疲软，美联储采取了一些令人惊讶的温和立场。

Significant dislodgements across asset classes – currencies, bonds, equities, commodities – led to the most volatile day of price action in all of 2019. Yet no less than 48-hours after the March Fed meeting, the FX markets kicked into reverse and saw all the Fed-induced US Dollar losses unwind.

资产类别 - 货币，债券，股票，大宗商品 - 的重大失控导致2019年全年价格波动最剧烈。但在3月美联储会议后不少于48小时，外汇市场开始逆转并且看到美联储引发的美元全部亏损正在放缓。

In the weeks since, US growth expectations have continued to rebound, up from 0.5% annualized on the day of the March Fed meeting to 2.1% on April 5, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1‘19 growth tracker (the NY Fed Nowcast is less bull, at 1.5%). As such, the rationale behind the Fed’s latest decisions will come under a microscope this Wednesday; in turn, greater than normal volatility in USD-pairs should be anticpated.

在此后的几周内，美国经济增长预期继续反弹，从3月份美联储当天年化0.5％上升根据亚特兰大联储GDPNow Q1'19增长跟踪报告（纽约联邦储备银行Nowcast较少牛市，1.5％），4月5日达到2.1％。因此，美联储最新决定背后的理由将在本周三显微镜下进行;反过来，应该反对美元对中的正常波动率。

Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold

需要观察的对象：DXY指数，欧元兑美元，美元兑日元，黄金

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EURUSD Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (December 2017 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

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EURUSDs losing streak took a breather this week, but the overarching bearish bias remains in place. Momentum remains firmly to the downside right now, with price below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope in sequential order. Similarly, daily MACD and Slow Stochastics are trending lower in bearish territory now. The inside day bar on April 4 and the inverted hammer on April 5 likewise suggest that more downside is possible in the near-term. A retest of the yearly low around 1.1176 should be eyed in the coming days.

本周欧元兑美元连跌不已，但总体看跌偏见仍然存在。目前势头依然坚挺下行，价格依次低于每日8,13和21-EMA信号。同样，日线MACD和慢速随机指标现在在看跌区域走低。 4月4日的日内酒吧和4月5日的倒立锤同样暗示近期可能出现更多下行空间。未来几天应重新测试1.1176附近的年度低点。

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IG Client Sentiment Index: EURUSD (April 5, 2019) (Chart 2)

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Retail trader data shows 74.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.93 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Mar 26 when EURUSD traded near 1.12738; price has moved 0.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.8% lower than yesterday and 8.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.2% lower than yesterday and 3.0% lower from last week.

零售交易者数据显示，74.5％的交易者为净多头，交易者多头做空比率为2.93比1.事实上，交易商自3月以来一直保持净多头26当欧元兑美元交易于1.12738附近时;此后价格已下跌0.5％。交易商净多头比昨天减少4.8％，比上周增加8.6％，而交易商净空头数比昨天减少5.2％，比上周减少3.0％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来观察市场情绪，而交易商持有净多头意味着欧元兑美元价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前市场情绪和近期变化的结合使我们对欧元兑美元看跌的逆势交易偏好更加强烈。

FX TRADING RESOURCES

外汇交易资源 p>

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

无论您是新手还是经验丰富的交易员，DailyFX都有多种资源可以帮助您：监控交易者情绪的指标;季度交易预测;每日举办的分析和教育网络研讨会;交易指南，以帮助您即时通讯交易表现，甚至是那些不熟悉外汇交易的人。

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

---由高级货币策略师CFA Christopher Vecchio撰写