US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD Testing Support, USD/JPY Resistance

US Dollar, EURUSD, USDJPY Price Outlook Talking Points:

美元，欧元兑美元，美元兑日元价格展望谈话要点：

• The US Dollar is putting in a bounce to start Q3 trade, and after a quick opening-gap, prices have pushed up to the 96.47 Fibonacci level.

  美元正在推出反弹开始第三季度交易，在快速开盘后，价格已上涨至96.47斐波那契水平。

• This USD bounce has brought upon a support test in EURUSD to go along with a resistance inflection in USDJPY. With USD weakness showing last month on the heels of a dovish flip at the Fed, can Dollar bears continue to push in the second-half of this year？

  此美元反弹已经在欧元兑美元进行了支撑测试以配合美元兑日元的阻力变动。由于美元在美联储温和下跌之后上个月出现美元疲软，今年下半年美元空头能继续推升吗？

US Dollar Bounces to Start Q3, 2H 2019

美元反弹至第三季度开始，2019年2月

The Q3 open is already showing some interesting items of volatility. US equity futures are trading at fresh all-time-highs, Oil prices have broken above the key psychological level of $60 and the US Dollar has shown a flicker of strength after last months break below rising wedge support.

Q3开放已经显示出一些有趣的波动性项目。美国股指期货创下新的历史高点，油价突破60美元关键心理水平，美元在上个月突破楔形支撑位后突显强势。

As the second-half of 2019 gets underway, the big question is which risk trend might take over？ After a slump in stocks in Q4 a strong ramp showed up as buyers clawed back those prior losses in Q1 and into Q2. But an aggressive sell-off in May appeared to emanate from a ‘not dovish enough’ stance at the FOMC; but all was restored to normal as the bank made the initial moves towards more-dovish policy at the June rate decision.

随着2019年下半年开始，最大的问题是风险趋势可能会接管？在第四季度股市暴跌之后，由于买家在第一季度收回了先前的亏损， Q2。但5月份的激进抛售似乎源自FOMC的“不够鸽派”的立场;但由于银行在6月份的利率决定中采取了更温和的政策，所有措施都恢复正常。

In the US Dollar, that flip at the Fed allowed for a downside break of a rising wedge pattern, which will often be approached with the aim of bearish reversals. And given the prior year-plus of strength in the USD, such a scenario made sense. This was the thesis of the Q3 technical forecast for the US Dollar, which is now available as part of the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.

在美元，美联储的这一转变允许上涨楔形格局的下行突破，通常会以看跌逆转为目标。考虑到前一年的美元强势，这种情况是有道理的。这是美元第三季度技术预测的论文，现在可以提供e作为DailyFX Q3预测的一部分。

Download the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts

下载DailyFX Q3预测

US Dollar Weekly Price Chart

美元每周价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写

After a small gap-higher to start this week‘s trade, the US Dollar has budged up to a fresh higher-high and appears to be trying to find higher-low support around prior resistance. If buyers are able to hold support above the 96.03 level during today’s trade, there may be scope for a deeper short-term retracement to develop.

从本周开始的交易开始，美元已经上涨至新的高点并且似乎试图在先前的阻力位附近找到更高的低位支撑位。如果买家能够在今天的交易中获得96.03以上的支撑位，那么可能会有更深层次的短期回撤来发展。

US Dollar Two-Hour Price Chart

美元两小时价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

If buyers are able to push, there are a few areas of note where longer-term lower-high resistance could be of interest. The under-side of the rising wedge pattern currently projects to around 96.90. A bit higher is a prior swing-low around the 97.35 level that could be utilized as a secondary zone of resistance potential.

如果买家能推，有一个几个值得关注的领域，长期的低 - 高阻力可能会引起关注。上升楔形模式的底部目前预计到96.90左右。略高于97.35水平的先前摆动低点，可用作阻力潜力的次要区域。

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US Dollar Eight-Hour Price Chart

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Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

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EURUSD Tests Higher-Low Support to Start Q3

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Going along with that USD bounce to start Q3, EURUSD has pulled back to test a zone of support as taken from prior resistance. The area runs from around 1.1325-1.1350, which were the April and early-June swing highs, respectively.

随着美元反弹开始第三季度，欧元兑美元已回撤以测试从先前阻力位开始的支撑区域。该区域分别位于1.1325-1.1350附近，分别为4月和6月初的高点。

For themes of USD weakness, the topside of EURUSD can remain as attractive as theres the potential for an elongated short-squeeze scenario in the pair. Longer-term resistance lurks above from the prior range, running from the 1.1448-1.1500 area on the chart.

对于美元疲软的主题，欧元兑美元的上行仍然具有吸引力。 theres该货币对中一个延长的短挤压情景的潜力。从图表中的1.1448-1.1500区域开始，长期阻力位于先前区间上方。

EURUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart

EURUSD八小时价格图表

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Chart prepared by James Stanley

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USDJPY Gap Re-Tests Resistance

美元兑日元差距重新测试阻力

Also on the short side of the US Dollar, I‘ve been following USDJPY, looking to take advantage of Yen-strength to go along with a weak US Dollar. The pair has gapped-higher to start this week, finding a bit of resistance at the prior zone that runs from 108.47-108.70. Of note, this gap crossed above a bearish trend-line that’s been in play in USDJPY for a couple of months now.

同样在美元的空头方面，我一直在关注美元兑日元，希望利用日元强势与美元疲软同步。本周开始该货币对已经跳空高开，在前期区间发现了一点阻力位108.47-108.70。值得注意的是，这个差距超过了美元兑日元在几个月内出现的看跌趋势线。

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USDJPY Eight-Hour Price Chart

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Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由詹姆斯·斯坦利准备

This sets the pair up for a fairly interesting start to this week: Should that gap get filled with buyers showing a penchant for support above the 107.50 swing-low, there may be bullish prospects that could soon become a workable theme, largely looking at the trendline break combined with higher-low support. Alternatively, if buyers are able to continue pushing in the early-portion of this week, re-testing the prior swing-low around 109.00 for a fresh monthly high, that bullish backdrop can also brighten, with focus for support at the current zone of resistance from 108.47-108.70.

这使得这一对在本周开始了一个相当有趣的开始：应该这个差距充满买家表现出支撑位于107.50下方的低点，可能会有看涨的前景可能很快成为一个可行的主题，主要是关注趋势线突破和高低支撑。或者，如果买家能够在本周早些时候继续推动，重新测试之前的摆动低点109.00附近为新的月度高点，那个看涨的背景也可能会变亮，重点关注当前区域的支撑位。阻力位于108.47-108.70。

USDJPY Four-Hour Price Chart

USDJPY四小时价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表