Gold Price Weekly Outlook: XAU Breakdown Stalls at Technical Support

• Gold price sell-off testing confluence support- focus is on weekly close around 1275/76

  黄金价格抛售测试合并支持 - 焦点是每周收盘于1275/76附近

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Gold is virtually unchanged for the week thus far, with price now testing a major technical support zone we‘ve been tracking for months. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly price chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

在本系列中，我们缩小并查看更广泛的技术图片，以更多地了解我们的趋势。到目前为止，本周金价几乎没有变化，现在价格正在测试我们已经追踪数月的主要技术支持区域。这些是XAU / USD每周价格图表中重要的更新目标和失效水平。回顾本周的战略网络研讨会，深入了解此设置及其他内容。

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黄金交易新手入门？开始使用此免费黄金交易指南

Gold Weekly Price Chart (XAU/USD)

黄金周价格表（XAU / USD）

Notes: In my last Gold Price Outlook we warned to be, “on the lookout for downside exhaustion here near-term,” as price was attempting to confirm a weekly close below confluence support at 1275/76- a region defined by the yearly opening-range low and the 38.2% retracement of the 2018 advance. Nearly three-weeks later and price has failed to mark a weekly close below- note that the August trendline also converges on this zone over the next two weeks and we're looking for a resolution.

注：我上一次的黄金价格展望我们警告称，“在近期注意下行疲惫”，因为价格试图确认每周收盘价低于汇价支撑位1275 / 76-一个由年度开盘低点和38.2％回撤线定义的区域2018年的进展。差不多三个星期后，价格未能在每周收盘价下方 - 请注意8月趋势线在接下来的两周内也会收敛于该区域，我们正在寻找解决方案。

Gold posted an outside-weekly reversal off fresh monthly highs last week with the sell-off taking gold prices back into this key zone. A weekly close below is still needed to fuel another leg lower targeting more significant support / broader bullish invalidation at 1253/58. Monthly open resistance stands at 1283 backed by the May range high at 1303- a close above would be needed to validate the turn targeting the 2019 high-week close at 1327.

黄金上周公布了每周新的月度高点逆转，因为抛售将金价重新带回这个关键区域。仍然需要每周收盘低于另一条腿，以更加重要的支撑/ 1253/58更广泛的看涨无效为目标。月度开盘阻力位于1283，受到5月区间高点1303的支撑 - 收盘价将高于上方ded验证转向目标为2019年高点收盘价1327。

Bottom line: The immediate focus is on the weekly close in relation to the 1275/76 zone. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. A weekly close below would leave the focus on 1253/58- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Ill publish an updated Gold Price Outlook once we get further clarity in near-term price action. Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices.

底线：立即关注与1275/76区域相关的每周收盘价。从交易的角度来看，这是减少短期曝光/降低保护性停留的好地方。每周收盘低于1253 / 58-会在IF达到更大的反应。一旦我们进一步明确近期价格行动，我就会发布更新的黄金价格展望。查看我们最新的黄金2Q预测，以便长期了解XAU / USD价格的技术图片。

E

Gold Trader Sentiment

黄金交易员情绪

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +4.32 (81.2% of traders are long) – bearish reading

  IG客户情绪摘要显示，交易者持有净多头黄金 - 该比率为+4.32（交易者持有的比例为81.2％） - 看跌读数

• The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since November 25th

  交易者净多头的百分比现在是11月25日以来的最高值

• Long positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 11.6% higher from last week

  多头比期低0.2％昨日较上周上涨11.6％

• Short positions are 8.8% lower than yesterday and 29.8% lower from last week

  空头头寸较昨日减少8.8％，较上周减少29.8％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆向诉讼人群情绪高涨，交易商净多头表明黄金价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前的定位和最近的变化相结合，使我们从情绪的角度看待黄金利空的逆势交易偏向。