Quiet Before the Storm? Markets Poised for a Relaxed Week
For June 2024, Canada's CPI rose by 2.7% year-over-year, down from 2.9% previously. This decrease in core inflation is driven by a combination of slower economic growth and moderated wage growth, even with a strong labor market. The FOMC meeting minutes from July 2024 indicated that the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 5.25% to 5.50% and revealed a shift in the Fed's focus. The latest data on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, for the week ending...
Fed Pressured: Will CPI Data Fuels Calls for Rate Cuts？
The U.S Producer Price Index (PPI) for June showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, which was slightly above market expectations of 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% during its last meeting on July 2024, which was consistent with market expectations. As of June 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a modest increase of 3.0% year-over-year, weaker than market expectation and previous reading of 3.1% and 3.3%..
Gold Surge to All-time High
he U.S. equity market continued its rally in yesterday's session, with the Dow Jones approaching its all-time high near the 41,000 mark. The Russell 2000 (US2000) small-cap index surged more than 10% since last Thursday, suggesting that strategists have been rotating their exposure to small-cap counters, which are more sensitive to interest rate changes.
Inflation Watch: CPI Data Unveiled Across Countries
In May, Canada's Consumer Price Index rose by 0.6%, surpassing both market forecasts of 0.6% and the previous figure of 0.5%. Statistics Canada attributes this increase primarily to higher food prices, especially for wheat-based products, which exerted notable inflationary pressures. The latest U.S. retail sales data for May 2024 shows a modest 0.1% month-over-month increase, a slight improvement following the previous month's 0.2% decline. This growth is driven by a gradual rise in sales...
Global Market Insights: Key Events and Economic Analysis Part 1
This week's major events include Powell's cautious outlook on rate cuts, TSMC's gains amid Samsung's strike, and Putin's diplomatic efforts. In China, the PBOC prepares bond interventions, while Korea's Hahn & Co. raises $3.4 billion. Deflationary pressures persist in China. US and European legal and regulatory changes impact market sentiment. Key data releases are NFIB Small Business Optimism, Core CPI, PPI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment for the USA.
Uncertainty Looms? Data To Illuminate US Inflation Path
In May, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50%. This decision reflects a commitment to keeping monetary policy restrictive to manage inflationary pressures and ensure that inflation returns to the target range of 1-3% by the end of 2024. The latest UK GDP data (MoM) for April 2024 showed that the economy remained flat at 0.0%, following a 0.4% increase in March 2024. This stagnation is attributed to declines in industrial output and...
Today's analysis: XAUUSD Faces Potential Decline Amid Fed's Rate Uncertainty
Gold (XAU/USD) is predicted to decrease due to a mix of economic factors and technical indicators. Lower-than-expected US PPI and CPI data suggest potential Fed rate cuts, initially supporting gold, but a cautious Fed outlook has pulled prices back. Technically, a bearish Head-and-Shoulders pattern suggests a trend reversal, with a break below $2,279 confirming downside targets at $2,171 and $2,106. However, a rise above $2,345 could challenge this pattern and push prices back toward $2,450.
Eye on the Horizon: Market Anticipate Inflation Data Ahead
The Producer Price Index, which is an important gauge of wholesale-level inflation, increased by 2.1% over the 12 months leading up to March. This marks a rise from the 1.6% gain observed in February, representing its most substantial increase since April 2023. In March, consumer prices in the U.S. rose beyond expectations as consumer price index increases 0.4% in March, driven by higher costs for gasoline and rental housing. In March, U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations, with Core Retail..
The Strong NFP Bolsters the Dollar
The U.S. labor market's vigorous expansion, with the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report disclosing an impressive 303,000 job additions that exceeded both previous results and projections; bolstering dollar
GEMFOREX - weekly analysis
The week ahead: Dollar awaits key US data
EURUSD Regains Some Strength, Bond Yields Signal a Recession
The EURUSD has pushed past the 1.1140 resistance line but traders will be eyeing German CPI and US PCE Core figures to strengthen their position. Worries about a recession have pushed long-term government yields around the world to the lowest level in years
USD/PHP Eyes Reversal as Crude Oil Revives 2018 Peso Selloff Fears
The Philippine Peso fell as crude oil prices rose on Iran supply disruption fears. USD/PHP broke key resistance. Higher petroleum prices may reignite 2018 Peso selloff if CPI climbs.
USD/NOK Eyeing Norway CPI - Slower EU Growth May Hurt Nordics
The Norwegian Krone will be closely eyeing tomorrow‘s CPI data as the European economy slows down and may begin to weigh on Norway’s performance.
