Seven charts show how coronavirus could clobber commercial real estate - Business Insider

A Moody's Analytics report forecasts the effects of a coronavirus-fueled, Great Recession-sized hit to commercial real estate. The report predicted that all real-estate asset classes will see rising vacancies and falling rents, though traditional multifamily will be the most stable. Unsurprisingly, retail and hospitality assets will likely see the worst of the crisis, but some niche parts of multifamily like student and senior housing could also be at risk.Click here for more BI Prime stories.

The coronavirus pandemic has completely upended the economic outlook for 2020, leading to mass layoffs in the retail and hospitality sectors and erasing the equity market gains of the Trump-bump.With the potential for 18 months of disruption and leading financial institutions predicting a recession, this is likely only the tip of the iceberg. While the commercial real estate industry hasn't seen any collapses yet, it is far from immune from the fallout. A Moody's Analytics report, published last Thursday and written by chief economist on the REIS (Real Estate Information Services) team, Victor Calanog, asked the question “How How Bad Can It Get？ COVID-19 and The Outlook for CRE.” The report forecasts the effects of a “protracted slump,” or a pandemic-prompted recession that would cause GDP to contract by 4% over a year and a half, on different asset classes and geographies in the commercial real estate business. Moody's Analytics protracted slump scenario would result in roughly the same level of GDP contraction and disruption as the Great Recession.The report forecasts that all asset classes of real estate will take a hit, but predicts that retail and hospitality will bear the brunt of the coronavirus fallout. Multifamily apartments will be least likely to be badly impacted, but subsectors like student housing and senior housing are less secure.

Accompanying the report are charts and tables that show the impact of the coronavirus on each impact. We've selected seven of the most important, and included them below.