简体中文
繁體中文
English
Pусский
日本語
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Bahasa Indonesia
Español
हिन्दी
Filippiiniläinen
Français
Deutsch
Português
Türkçe
한국어
العربية
Resumo:The US Dollar may rise vs the Norwegian Krone if the Norges Bank scales back its hawkish outlook against the backdrop of slower regional and global growth.
US DOLLAR, NORWEGIAN KRONE, NORGES BANK – TALKING POINTS
Norges Bank rate decision, commentary may sink Norwegian Krone
Monetary authorities may pivot away from previous hawkish stance
US Dollar may extend gains vs Krone if Nordic markets get spooked
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!
The Norwegian Krone may be in for a painful session ahead if the Norges Bank cools rate hike expectations for the rest of the year. Up until recently, it was one of the most hawkish central banks in the developed world. However, slower global growth and weakening demand out of Europe may be eroding confidence that the Norwegian economy can withstand an environment of tightened credit conditions.
Specter of Slowing Growth is Haunting Europe
As Norway‘s largest trading partner – and destination for over eighty percent of the country’s exports – European demand is critical to the wealth of the Norwegian economy. Policymakers in Oslo are growing hot under the collar as a German ZEW survey data reached alarming-low levels and preliminary reports showed Europes largest economy likely contracted in the second quarter.
Norways petroleum-based economy is inherently at the mercy of changes in global sentiment due to its strong link to crude oil prices that are fickle by nature. The Norwegian Krone and benchmark OBX equity index frequently move in tandem with Brent, which might explain why the central bank is reconsidering its tightening cycle. Weaker crude oil prices are a downside risk for inflation and may warrant a change in policy.
ICE Brent Crude Oil, Norway OBX Benchmark Equity Index
OBX chart created using TradingView
Looking at market implied policy rates on August 14 versus the historical reading in July shows a downward shift across all the various tenors. This suggests investors are anticipating significant trouble ahead to such a degree that it will warrant a reversal of the Norges Banks tightening cycle. It appears that the central bank is now finally succumbing to the pressure of its peers, and NOK will likely suffer as a result.
Gloomy Premonitions Ahead
FX TRADING RESOURCES
Join a free webinar and have your trading questions answered
Just getting started? See our beginners guide for FX traders
Having trouble with your strategy? Heres the #1 mistake that traders make
Isenção de responsabilidade:
Os pontos de vista expressos neste artigo representam a opinião pessoal do autor e não constituem conselhos de investimento da plataforma. A plataforma não garante a veracidade, completude ou actualidade da informação contida neste artigo e não é responsável por quaisquer perdas resultantes da utilização ou confiança na informação contida neste artigo.