Gold Price Weekly Outlook: Gold Rips to 5-Year Highs- Buyers Beware

• Gold price rally testing resistance at 2014 highs- trade remains constructive above 1327

  2014年高位的黄金价格反弹测试阻力仍高于1327

Gold prices are up more than 4.1% this week and for a fifth consecutive weekly advance in XAU/USD. The rally marks the largest single-week advance since April of 2016 with price now probing a key resistance zone at fresh five-year highs. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly price chart. Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

本周黄金价格上涨超过4.1％，连续第五个月上涨每周XAU / USD的预付款。此反弹是自2016年4月以来单周最大涨幅，价格正在探讨新的五年高点的关键阻力区。这些是XAU / USD每周价格图表中重要的更新目标和失效水平。查看我的最新周刊策略网络研讨会，深入了解此设置及其他内容。

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

黄金价格走势图 - XAU / USD每周

Notes: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that the, “The weekly opening-range is set in Gold heading into the FOMC interest rate decision later today – look for the break…. A topside breach keeps the focus on subsequent resistance objectives at the 2016 high-week close at 1366 and the 38.2% retracement / 2014 high at 1380/92 (critical).” A breakout post-Fed led the advance with the rally taking XAU/USD to fresh multi-year highs (high registered at 1411). The focus is on a weekly close heading into Friday with price now testing key resistance at 1380/92 – note that basic parallel / channel resistance converges on this zone and further highlights its technical significance.

注意：在我上一次的黄金价格展望中我们他指出，“每周开盘价将在今天晚些时候进入FOMC利率决定的黄金中设定 - 寻找突破......上行突破将重点关注2016年高点收盘时的后续阻力目标1366和38.2％的回撤/ 2014年高点1380/92（关键）。”美联储突破后领涨，随着反弹走高XAU /美元兑新的多年高位（高位于1411）。重点是每周收盘前进至周五，目前价格测试关键阻力位于1380/92 - 注意基本平行/通道阻力汇聚于该区域，并进一步凸显其技术意义。

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A close above this threshold keeps the focus on subsequent topside objectives at 1433 and the 100% extension of the late-2015 advance at 1451- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Interim support now 1366 backed by the 2018 high-week close at 1350. Broader bearish invalidation now raised to the February high-week close at 1327.

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Bottom line: The immediate focus is on a weekly close above this critical resistance zone at multi-year highs. A close above 1392 would keep the immediate long-bias viable heading into the final week of June trade. Failure here would highlight the risk for near-term exhaustion. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stop. Ultimately, a pullback would offer more favorable entries closer to the former 2016 trendline. Ill publish an updated Gold Price Outlook once we get further clarity in near-term price action next week. Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices.

底线：当前关注的是每周收盘高于这个关键阻力区的多年高点。收盘价高于1392将使即时长期偏见继续进入6月交易的最后一周。这里的失败会突显近期疲惫的风险。从交易的角度来看，这是减少长时间曝光/提高保护性停止的好地方。最终，回调将提供更接近前2016年趋势线的更有利的参赛作品。我们将在下周进一步明确近期价格行动后，发布更新的黄金价格展望。查看我们最新的黄金2Q预测，以便长期了解XAU / USD价格的技术图片。

Gold Trader Sentiment (XAU/USD)

黄金交易员情绪（XAU / USD）

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• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +1.37 (57.8% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading

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• Long positions are 11.5% higher than yesterday and 6.3% higher from last week

  多头头寸比昨天增加11.5％，比上周增加6.3％

• Short positions are 1.3% lower than yesterday and 3.6% higher from last week

  空头头寸比昨天减少1.3％，比上周增加3.6％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold price (XAU/USD) -bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，事实上交易者是净多头意味着黄金价格上涨y继续下降。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前定位和近期变化的结合使我们的黄金价格更加强劲（XAU / USD）从情绪的角度来看，看跌逆势交易偏见。

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

以前的每周技术图表

• Kiwi (NZD/USD)

  新西兰元（新西兰元/美元）

• Crude Oil (WTI)

  原油（WTI）

• Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

  日元（美元/日元）

• Aussie (AUD/USD)

  澳元（澳元/美元）

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• Euro (EUR/USD)

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• Swissy (USD/CHF)

  Swissy（美元/瑞士法郎）

• US Dollar (DXY)

  美元（DXY）

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

---由DailyFX技术货币策略师Michael Boutros撰写