Gold Post Fed Decision

Spot gold rallied on Tuesday on the back of a surprise US Federal Reserve rate cut. The unexpected move comes amid pressures from global central banks to take action to combat the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus. The precious metal is currently up 3.18 percent over the previous day, having reached a peak of $1,643.90 per ounce earlier in the session.

In issuing its decision today, the US central bank marks the first time since 2008 that an interest rate change has come outside of a scheduled regular meeting. The new target range for the federal funds rate has dropped to 1.25 from 1.75 originally. While US treasury secretary Mnuchin welcomed the move, US President Trump tweeted that the cut was not enough as he maintains his rhetoric with the Fed.

Amid high volatility levels in Wall Street, the Fed is hoping that a rate cut will provide some stability and assurance to equity investors. However, based on current market moves, we are expecting US indices to close lower today as traders continue to gauge what impact this rate cut will have.

On the gold market, bulls welcomed the move as lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal. Generally speaking, there is a negative correlation between gold prices and the US dollar. As the dollar comes under pressure, demand for the USD denominated gold tends to increase.

(Chart Source: Tradingview 03.03.2020)

From a technical perspective, the precious metal has recovered almost all losses incurred on Friday, breaching past the 0.50 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels with ease. The current bullish target is to break above $1,651.16, with a potential push to test the $1,693.80 mark. The $1,651.16 resistance level will likely pose a strong hurdle to cross, though the short-term outlook for gold remains bullish. In times of uncertainty and lower interest rates, the safe-haven asset tends to perform well. With the RSI still below heavily overbought conditions, we may see gold continue its upward push in the coming sessions.

Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.