Gold Prices May Break Key Support as US Dollar Reclaims Haven Bid

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

黄金和原油谈话要点：

• Gold prices drop as USD reclaims support from haven demand

  黄金价格下跌，因美元回吐避险需求支撑

• Crude oil prices offset risk-off pressure with US supply worries

  原油价格抵消了美国供应忧虑带来的避险压力

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• Downbeat BOC rhetoric may trigger another bout of liquidation

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Gold prices turned lower despite would-be support from falling bond yields as the US Dollar reclaimed its haven appeal following a lapse last week, trading broadly higher as stocks retreated. Crude oil prices idled, with pressure from the broadly risk-off environment apparently offset amid supply concerns as heavy rain and flooding forced offline several key US pipelines and refineries.

黄金价格虽然有所支撑但仍然走低由于美元在上周失效后重新获得避险吸引力，因此随着股市回落而大幅上涨。由于大雨和洪水迫使几家主要的美国管道和炼油厂离线，原油价格在广泛避险环境下的压力显然被抵消了。

Looking ahead, a monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Canada is in focus. No changes in policy are expected but the accompanying commentary may shape global growth bets, particularly as recent data stokes worries about the spillover of global malaise into the heretofore resilient US economy. A downbeat tone may trigger another wave of risky asset liquidation.

展望未来，加拿大央行的货币政策公告成为焦点。预计政策不会发生任何变化，但伴随的评论可能会影响全球经济增长的赌注，特别是近期数据引发了人们对全球萎靡不振蔓延至此前美国经济复苏的担忧。悲观的基调可能引发另一波风险资产清算。

Bellwether S&P 500 futures are pointing conspicuously lower in late Asia Pacific trade, bolstering the case for risk aversion. Cycle-sensitive crude oil looks vulnerable in this scenario, although incoming API inventory flow data may muddy the waters somewhat. A modest 633k-barrel drawdown is expected. Gold will continue to weigh divergent cues from bonds and USD in the meanwhile.

Bellwether标准普尔500指数期货在亚太地区晚期交易中明显走低，支持风险规避的案例。在这种情况下，周期敏感的原油看起来很脆弱，尽管传入的API库存流量数据可能会在某种程度上混淆水域。预计将出现633k桶的适度下跌。同时，黄金将继续权衡债券和美元的不同线索。

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

黄金技术分析

Gold prices remain wedged between resistance set from late February (1295.10) and a rising trend line guiding the move higher since mid-August 2018 (1273.21). A break higher exposes the 1303.70-09.12 area, whereas a breach of support targets the 1260.80-63.76 zone.

金价在2月底（1295.10）创下的阻力位和上涨趋势线之间保持不变2018年8月中旬（1273.21）。突破高点暴露1303.70-09.12区域，而突破支撑位于1260.80-63.76区域。

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

原油技术分析

Crude oil prices remain pinned to support in the 57.24-88 area. A daily close below it opens the door for a test of the 55.37-75 zone. Alternatively, a push above support-turned-resistance in the 60.39-95 region sets the stage for a challenge of the 63.59-64.43 price band.

原油价格仍然在57.24-88区间受到支撑。日收盘价低于它将为55.37-75区域的测试打开大门。或者，推动支撑位于阻力位上方。 60.39-95区域为63.59-64.43价格区间的挑战奠定了基础。

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