Top 5 Events: March UK Inflation & GBPJPY Price Forecast

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

- The March UK Consumer Price Index is due on Wednesday, April 17 at 08:30 GMT.

- 3月英国消费物价指数将于4月17日星期三格林威治标准时间08:30公布。

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- Retail tradersare net-short GBPJPY but recent positioning changes suggest gains are possible in the near-term.

- 零售交易商是净空头英镑兑日元，但最近的定位变化表明短期内有可能上涨。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

周一美国东部夏令时间7:30 /格林尼治标准时间11点30分加入我的外汇周在网络研讨会之前，我们将讨论未来几天的顶级事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

04/17 WEDNESDAY | 08:30 GMT | GBP Consumer Price Index (MAR)

04/17 WEDNESDAY |格林尼治标准时间08:30 |英镑消费者价格指数（MAR）

Rebounding energy prices over the past several months have seen inflation readings across the developed world stabilize at the start of 2019; the UK Consumer Price Index should be no different. The upcoming March UK inflation report is due to show headline inflation due in at +2.0% from +1.9% (y/y), while the monthly reading is due in a 0.2% from 0.5%. Core CPI is expected to have increased to 1.9% from 1.8% (y/y).

过去几个月的能源价格反弹使发达国家的通胀数据在2019年初稳定下来;英国消费者价格指数应该没有什么不同。即将公布的3月份英国通胀报告显示，整体通胀率将从+ 1.9％（同比）下降至+ 2.0％，而月度数据将从0.5％降至0.2％。核心CPI预计将从1.8％（同比）上升至1.9％。

While the Bank of England‘s Monetary Policy Committee has repeatedly made clear that the lack of clarity over Brexit would give pause to any change in policy, thereby neutralizing the impact of economic data, with the Brexit deadline having been punted to October 31, it’s possible that the British Pound proves more sensitive to economic data in the meanwhile once more.

虽然英格兰银行货币政策委员会已多次明确表示缺乏英国退欧的清晰度将暂停政策的任何变化，从而抵消经济数据的影响，英国脱欧截止日期已经被推到10月31日，英镑有可能再次对经济数据更加敏感。 / p>

Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, GBPJPY, GBPUSD

值得关注：EURGBP，GBPJPY，GBPUSD

GBPJPY Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (December 2017 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

GBPJPY技术预测：每日价格走势图（2017年12月至2019年4月）（图表） 1）

Since February 22, GBPJPY prices have traded in a range between 143.78 and 148.87. From one point of view, this means the cross provides little opportunity. From another point of view, the recent consolidation in GBPJPY price action may be akin to a coiling spring storing potential energy; the release of the kinetic energy, the breakout from the range, is worth waiting for.

自2月22日以来，GBPJPY价格在143.78和148.87之间波动。从一个角度来看，这意味着十字架提供的机会很少。从另一个角度来看，最近英镑兑日元价格走势的整合可能类似于存储潜在能量的盘簧;值得等待的是动能的释放，即从范围突破。

Amid the sharp drop in volatility among the entire GBP-complex, and the broad improvement in risk appetite in general by the end of the week, GBPJPY found itself trading back in the top half of its near two-month range. Gains back towards the range high near 148.87, particularly in a week where there won‘t likely be any developments on the Brexit front due to UK parliament being closed for Easter, shouldn’t be ruled out in the near-term.

在整个英镑综合体的波动性急剧下降以及风险的广泛改善中本周末，英镑兑日元汇率回升至接近两个月的上半部分。回到148.87附近的区间高点，特别是在英国议会因复活节关闭而不会在英国脱欧方面出现任何进展的一周内，不应该在短期内被排除。

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBPJPY (April 12, 2019) (Chart 2)

IG客户情绪指数：GBPJPY（2019年4月12日）（图2）

Retail trader data shows 43.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.31 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 22.1% lower than yesterday and 6.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.7% lower than yesterday and 3.9% higher from last week.

零售交易者数据显示43.3％交易商净多头，交易者持股比例为1.31比1.交易商净多头比昨天减少22.1％，比上周减少6.0％，而交易商净空头数为5.7比昨天低％，比上周高3.9％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPJPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来看待市场情绪，而交易商净空头表明英镑兑日元价格可能继续上涨。交易商进一步净空比昨天和上周，当前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们更加强势英镑兑日元看涨逆势交易偏见。