昨晚商品大幅上涨,原因是美联储6月加息预期大幅回落,ADP数据再度大超预期,反映出目前就业市场依然偏强运行。
市场目前预计,美联储6月维持利率不变的可能性不到40%。如果在今年晚些时候(美联储)采取更温和的态度,这意味着可能会出现一定程度的利率放松,将被视为利好股市,同时也会降低投资者持有黄金的意愿。
上周金价震荡回落,美国两党接近谈妥债务上限,打压避险情绪。
昨天黄金窄幅震荡,有消息称新一轮美国债务上限谈判结束时没有取得多少进展,市场避险情绪升温,美债收益率也从逾两个月高点小幅回落,给金价提供反弹机会。
黄金上周刷新4月3日以来的新低点,累计跌约2.3%,有望录得2月3日当周以来最大周阴线,因美国有望达成债务上限协议以避免潜在违约。
昨天,现货黄金价格继续反弹,在经济不确定性普遍存在的情况下,投资者关注即将公布的美国通胀数据,以寻找美联储未来加息的线索。
银行业动荡的背景下,美联储本周召开政策会议,会后宣布升息25个基点,符合市场预期。
金属综合体本周开局良好,周一欧洲开盘黄金和白银均上涨。事实上,尽管美元本周开始呈绿色走势,但金属价格发现自己的出价更高。周五,美国 1 月劳工报告显示,全国非农就业报告总体数据远高于预期,为 46.7 万,而预期为 11 万。平均时薪也高于预期的 0.7%,为 0.5%,尽管失业率从之前的 3.9% 上升至 4%。总的来说,这是一组可靠的数据,使市场牢牢地专注于 3 月份的加息,并展望未来一年至少有 1% 的加息。
U.S. consumer prices rose in November at the fastest pace in nearly 40 years
Gold prices have rebounded sharply in recent sessions on the back of a decline in real yields after the latest Fed meeting
Demand for gold declined in the third quarter
The price of gold continues to rebound, regaining its mid-September level of about $1800, thanks to rising investor inflation expectations.
黄金市场本周开始时受到轻微抛售压力,周一欧洲市场早盘价格回落。在短期内,黄金的主要驱动力仍然是美联储加息的预期。上周,美联储几位决策者发表了一系列更加强硬的评论,这有助于提振美元。然而,整个周末的疲软数据打压了美元情绪,将焦点转向对经济增长的担忧。尽管市场热衷于在任何积极投入下推高美元,但鉴于我们所看到的频繁数据缺失,美联储缩减规模仍存在一些不确定性。
The price of gold has been under pressure since the beginning of the week after rising to a one-month high of 1,834 per ounce.
Up more than 5% on a week, the price of gold is recovering after falling to its lowest level of the year, below $1700 an ounce, on Monday last week
Gold prices are losing their appeal as investors' inflation expectations have fallen
Gold prices have been rebounding since Friday following the disappointing US jobs report
Gold prices are being supported by a weak dollar, subdued central bank commentary, and lower government bond yields around the world.
The price of gold continues to benefit from the weakness of the dollar and fears of an overheating economy.
After reaching an all-time high above 2,000 in August 2020, gold has charted a less sparkling path in recent months, trending lower year-to-date.